Hitting the 2014 Reset Button: 5 Opportunities to Make a Significant Kingdom Impact

by: Geoff Surratt

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I love New Years. Its an annual opportunity to hit the reset button, to explore who we could be, to dream about a better future. I know the statistics about how few resolutions we actually keep, but I don’t care; leaves die every winter, but spring still brings hope. So every year around this time I make a new list.

What if you made New Year’s Resolutions for your church? What could you change in 2014 that would make a significant impact for the Kingdom and the future health of your church? I’ve put together a list of five (based on five of the most popular New Year’s Resolutions) to get you started.

>>Lose weight

Your church is probably carrying a little extra weight; programs and ministries that really don’t make a difference and just take up time and space. There are a few volunteers that hang on year after year, but the group is really a drag on resources that could be better invested elsewhere. Its time to cut back.

Weight loss is always challenging. It takes discipline and determination, but it is always worth the sacrifice. How much healthier will your church be if you endure the short term pain of trimming dead weight for the long term gain of freed up resources?

>>Learn something new

How long has it been since your church has truly learned something new? Maybe its a completely new process of assimilation, a new order of service or a completely new model of youth ministry. This is the chance to shake things up, try something completely out of the box.

Most churches seldom try anything truly new for fear of upsetting the saints. Trying new things always disturbs the comfortable. But new life requires new thinking, so this is the year to launch a brand new initiative and see what happens. If you’re not learning you are dying.

>>Get out of debt

This is really boring but incredibly powerful. What if you focused 2014 on paying down a huge chunk of debt? Think of the increased ministry opportunities for the money no longer committed to debt service. I know new buildings, campuses and staff are more sexy, but reduced debt opens up the future exponentially. If you really want to invest in the next generation you’ll pay off our generation’s debt.

>>Quit Smoking

When Peter decided he knew better than Jesus how the future should play out Jesus left no room for doubt in his rebuke, “Get behind me Satan.” Peter’s intent might be good, but the outcome of his attitude would be devastating. Jesus was willing to sacrifice Peter’s feelings for the health of the mission.

Who are the toxic people in your church? The staff member, volunteer or elder who leaves a trail of destruction everywhere they go? How will the culture of your church improve if you stop them from dropping another verbal bomb or perpetuating another rumor? There’s nothing harder than quitting smoking, and nothing better for your health. Maybe you should stop reading blogs and make that phone call.

>>Travel to new places

Is time to open a new campus or plant a new church? All living things reproduce, but 95% of churches never start a new faith community. If more churches don’t wake up to the need for new congregations Christianity will continue to fade in America. There are at least 100 ways your church can travel to a new place this year. If you think you’re too small, too poor or too old to start something new let me know. I know we can find an amazing adventure for your church. Don’t just sit there in 2014, go somewhere new.

There are five ideas to get the juices flowing. I’d love to hear your New Year’s Resolutions for your church.

Read more from Geoff here.

Tags: 2014, Geoff Surratt, Reset Button

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The Art and Science of Predicting What’s Ahead for the American Church, Part 2

by: Thom Rainer

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In my earlier post last week, I offered the first seven of fourteen predictions for American churches for 2014. I must admit I am concerned about my focus on American congregations when so much is taking place in churches around the world. I am challenged to write more global posts for fear they will become too generic without local applications. I will continue to work on that issue.

For now, I will continue to look at American congregations. As a reminder, I noted that predicting is as much of an art as it is a science. Each of the predictions has a reasonable explanation. For these fourteen predictions, I gleaned from several sources:

• Data-based research, particularly LifeWay Research.
• Trends that are already underway and gaining momentum.
• Conversations with hundreds of church leaders.
• My own experiences, based on 25 years of consulting and research of American congregations.

For these fourteen predictions, I added a new feature, a confidence factor. For example, if I said I had 100 percent confidence that a prediction would become reality, it would mean that I have absolutely no doubt about it. None of these predictions have a 100 percent confidence factor. But none of them fall below 70 percent either. That means I have a fairly high level of certainty about each of these trends.

The order of the trends is random. They are not ranked in any particular priority. On Saturday, I shared the first seven predictions. I conclude today with the final seven.

1. More large churches will function like mini-denominations. These churches will have multiple locations. They will have one senior or lead pastor, and several other campus pastors. They are more likely to fund their own missions priorities, even if they are also contributing to a denominational missions fund. Many of them will write their own small group literature. Some will have their own church planting strategies. (70% confidence factor)
2. New worship centers will be built smaller. There will be a greater emphasis on smaller gatherings more frequently. This trend is being affected significantly by the preferences of the Millennial generation (born 1980 to 2000). A related trend is that many congregations will find ways to downsize their existing worship centers. (70%)
3. Increased emphasis on small groups. In 2014 we will see a decided shift from nearly two decades of the “worship revolution” to the “small group revolution.” Church leaders are rapidly discovering that members who connect to groups are the most faithful members in the church by a myriad of metrics. That is not to suggest that worship will become unimportant; it is to suggest that small groups will have a greater emphasis than the previous quarter century. (75%)
4. Longer pastoral tenure. There will be incremental but steady growth in the length of tenure of pastors at a given church. Part of the reason is the influence of the Millennials who do not view larger churches as their next step in ministry. Part of the reason is economic; moving in today’s economy is not nearly as easy in pre-recession days. Hopefully, the main reason is a sense of God’s call to stay rather than move. (75%)
5. Local churches increasing their roles as ministry training leaders. The role of ministry training in the past decades fell largely upon Bible colleges and seminaries. More churches in 2014 will partner with those colleges and seminaries to provide contextual training at a local church. (90%)
6. Church movement to the community. The posture of many American churches in the most recent decades has been to find ways to get people in the community to come to the church. That is shifting, perhaps dramatically. In more churches, the congregation will move to the community. Instead of a philosophy of “y’all come,” the dominant theme will be “we’ll go.” The congregants will be a more powerful presence in the community they serve, thus ministering to, influencing, and reaching more people with the gospel. (80%)
7. More multiple teaching/preaching pastors. In larger churches, there has been a decided trend toward having more than one teaching and preaching pastor. Now the trend is taking place in smaller churches. We will see more churches with attendance under 200, even some under 100, with more than one teaching/preaching pastor. Of course, not all of them will be full-time vocationally at the church, so there will be more bi-vocational pastors whose role is to be a second or even third pastor in these smaller churches. (85%)

These fourteen predictions are not infallible. But there does seem to be growing evidence that most, if not all of them, will become a reality in 2014.

Let me hear from you about my perspectives. Happy New Year!

Read Part 1 here.

Read more from Thom here.

Tags: 2014, Ministry Trends, Thom Rainer, predicting

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The Art and Science of Predicting What’s Ahead for the American Church, Part 1

by: Thom Rainer

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Predicting is as much of an art as it is a science. And if any prognosticator is honest, he or she will tell you that they don’t always get it right. I know. I certainly don’t always get it right.

But I don’t pull my predictions out of thin air. To the contrary, each of them has a reasonable explanation. For these fourteen predictions, I gleaned from several sources:

• Data-based research, particularly LifeWay Research.
• Trends that are already underway and gaining momentum.
• Conversations with hundreds of church leaders.
• My own experiences, based on 25 years of consulting and research of American congregations.

This year I am adding a new feature, a confidence factor. For example, if I said I had 100 percent confidence that a prediction would become reality, it would mean that I have absolutely no doubt about it. None of these predictions have a 100 percent confidence factor. But none of them fall below 70 percent either. That means I have a fairly high level of certainty about each of these trends.

The order of the trends is random. They are not ranked in any particular priority. Today, I will share the first seven, and then conclude with the final seven next week.

1. Increased church acquisitions. Smaller churches will seek to be acquired by larger churches in increasing numbers. One of the big factors is simply personnel cost. Many smaller churches can no longer afford to pay a pastor a salary and benefits, particularly health care benefits.  (75% confidence factor).
2. Downsizing of denominational structures. Many denominational structures are becoming smaller because their churches are declining. Others are feeling economic pinches. This trend of smaller and more efficient denominational structures at all levels will only become more pervasive in 2014. (90%).
3. Decline in conversion growth. American churches that grow are more likely to get their growth at the expense of other churches. Evangelism is waning in many churches, and fewer non-believers are becoming Christians. The negative reaction to programmatic evangelistic methods has evolved into an overreaction. Too few churches emphasize personal and church-based evangelism. (75%)
4. More megachurches. The data are clear that there are more megachurches (average worship attendance of 2,000 or more) today than a year ago. There is also little doubt the trend will continue. The only uncertainty is whether or not the rate of growth of megachurches will continue to climb. (85%)
5. Greater number of churches moving to a unified worship style. For years a noticeable trend was churches offering different worship styles. The most common was the offering of two services: traditional and contemporary, though the definitions of each were elusive. In the next year we will we see a reversal of that trend, as many of those same churches decide to move to one common worship style. (70%)
6. Increased emphasis on high-expectation church membership. For decades American congregations as a whole lowered their expectations of church membership. One could be on a church roll in many churches and not even attend worship services for years. We will see a gradual reversal of that trend in 2014 as more churches move to higher-expectation membership. (70%).
7. Increased challenges for congregations to build and acquire land due to restrictive governmental policies. American churches will experience more frustration with governmental authorities as they seek to expand, build, and acquire land. Part of the reason will be due to the authorities’ concern about traffic and congestions. Another part is the underlying concern of losing a property tax base to a nonprofit organization. In a few cases there will be outright animosity and prejudice against Christians and churches. (80%)

I will conclude the fourteen trends next week.

Read more from Thom here.

Tags: 2014, Ministry Trends, Thom Rainer, predicting

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